Will Coronavirus (Covid-19) Weaken in Springtime in the Northern Hemisphere? Covid-19 Seems Overrepresented in Colder Climates
- 2020年03月06日 22:20:00
- テクノロジー
- JCN Newswire
Our team members came up with the hypotheses when looking at lists of countries and regions with the most affected patients. We compared this to our "expectations"of most affected areas based on our understanding of where we saw large numbers of travelers from China. This was later backed up by travel data.
Within Japan we noticed large outbreaks in Hokkaido (Japan's most northern and very cold island) and very few outbreaks in Okinawa (Japan's subtropical southern island). Okinawa is a place that one might have expected to see a large outbreak as we knew that the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked there and many passengers got off the ship on February 1st. However, only three cases have been found in Okinawa, where the average temperature in February is 17 degrees Celsius. On the other hand in Hokkaido, where the average temperature in the outbreak epicenter of Kitami was -7 degrees Celsius in February, there have been seventy-seven cases (as of March 3, 2020).
Hokkaido and Okinawa are comparable in other ways. Both Hokkaido and Okinawa have large numbers of Chinese travelers. Both are comparatively more reliant on car travel than much of the rest of Japan. And while Hokkaido has a larger population of 5.3m compared with Okinawa's 1.5m, Hokkaido's much larger area leads to Okinawa having a much higher population density at 640/km2 versus Hokkaido's 63 persons/km2.
From a business perspective they are also similar in having multiple listed companies related to banking, power, and cellular. Hokkaido has many more listed companies, however, with broader offerings that include retail, food, service, and others. Hokkaido is also home to the Sapporo Securities Exchange (SSE) and Ambitious (AMB).
Okinawa's listed companies include: The Bank of Okinawa Ltd. (TSE1: 8397);Bank of the Ryukyus, Limited (TSE1: 8399);Okinawa Electric Power Company (TSE1: 9511), Okinawa Cellular Telephone Company (JASDAQ: 9436), SAN-A Co., Ltd. (TSE1: 2659). Hokkaido listed companies include: Hokkaido Electric Power (TSE1: 9509), Kanamoto Co., Ltd. (TSE1: 9678), Sapporo Clinical Laboratory (JASDAQ: 9776), CE Holdings (TSE1: 4320), as well many others.
Looking at a country level we saw a similar relationship between cold weather and high infections. We first examined the three countries where Beijing travelers are said to travel most frequently: Japan, Thailand, and Korea. Although 19% of Beijing tourists travelled to Thailand (data from first quarter 2019), there were just 43 cases of Covid-19 confirmed. In contrast, Japan has 980 confirmed cases (including the Diamond Princess). Korea had more than 10 times more cases (4,812) despite having less than half the Chinese tourists that Thailand sees.
For reference refer to table 1 of Beijing tourists, and table 2 of temperatures in selected countries.
Looking at other regions where outbreaks have occurred also seemed to indicate a similar correlation of cold temperatures to high numbers of infections. The six cold regions that we analyzed had comparatively high outbreak numbers while the four warm regions had lower numbers compared to our expectations based on movement patterns of Chinese travelers.
In table 2 one can see that the cold areas of Wuhan, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France, Tokyo, Hokkaido all have fairly high numbers compared to expectations. The warm regions, including Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia and Okinawa all had fairly small numbers compared to expectations. Washington State would also be considered cold and news articles suggest that the outbreak may be growing faster than the current confirmed count would suggest.
Our researchers acknowledged that such a small sample size of regions does not provide statistical significance. Yet, we believe that starting to see patterns may be helpful in understanding the virus spread.
Are we suggesting that the virus cannot not spread in warmer clients? Certainly not. There have been at least 500 confirmed cases (as of March 3, 2020) in warm climates. However, there have been many more in colder climates with 10,178 (excluding Wuhan). This number would reach 90,329 if Wuhan cases were counted.
Data on the longevity of the virus on surfaces in different temperatures provides support to our hypotheses. A study published in the Canadian Journal of Microbiology referring to a different coronavirus (coronavirus 229) stated, "viral infectivity was completely lost after a 14-day incubation period at 22, 33, or 37 degrees C but remained relatively constant at 4 degrees C for the same length of time."This again indicates that colder temperatures support the virus better.
Additionally, studies conducted by Ruhr University Bochum and the University of Greifswald indicated that some coronaviruses could survive on surfaces for 28 days or longer at 4 degrees Celsius;in warmer temperatures coronaviruses ceased to be persistent after only a few hours or days.
This does not indicate that infections spread more from surface contact, which we have not studied. But it does suggest that the virus has less ability to survive in warmer climates.
Does all of this suggest that the Coronavirus will absolutely go away in spring? We think not. Based on the data showing spread, albeit at a slower pace, in warm climates, we believe people will continue to be infected. However, it might suggest that if communities continue to make the right decisions about virus control, they might get a positive boost from warmer weather come spring and summer.
About Azabu Insights
Azabu Insights is a boutique strategic consulting company based in Azabu Juban, Tokyo, Japan. Our teams work collaboratively with clients to build strategies that lead to positive change. Our multilingual team members have top tier academic backgrounds and deep industry experience that we leverage to provide first class, fully engaged, strategic consulting. Core specializations include life sciences, finance, electronics, automotive, aerospace and other industries. For more information contact: info@azabuinsights.com.
Copyright 2020 JCN Newswire. All rights reserved. www.jcnnewswire.com
大谷翔平「僕は乗ってないんだけどな、と」昨年オフ“プレイベートジェット”誤情報に言及
水曜日のダウンタウン、次回予告のミスで「エンドレスエイト」がトレンド入りする事態に
ナ・リーグ打撃上位一覧(米23日現在)
Rソックス吉田正尚3試合連続スタメン落ち、コーラ監督「DHに2人使えない、枠が3つあれば」
【弁護士が回答】レンタカーでドライブ中に追突されたら慰謝料の相場は?|旅のトラブルFAQ
【ロッテリア】パティが2枚の「夜Wバーガー」誕生! マクドナルドの「倍バーガー」とコスパ比較
米TikTok「禁止」法成立 バイデン氏陣営はアプリ使用継続
モナコ南野拓実が先発フル出場 4位リールに競り勝ち欧州CLへ前進、PSGの優勝に待った
バルセロナ・シャビ監督が退任の意向を撤回 ラポルタ会長らクラブ首脳陣との会談で延長合意
【阪神】大山悠輔「勝ってよかった」雨の逆転劇呼ぶ土壇場9回同点打、7連勝!晴れて首位堅守
何があった!?「エアコン」が想定外の壊れ具合!投稿者に話を聞いた
小澤征悦と再婚した桑子真帆アナ(34)黒い過去が流出、衝撃の過去にネット騒然
大原櫻子、ガーシー暴露後初のSNS投稿に賛否の声「イメージ最悪になった」
完全にダマされた! 『ラヴィット!』あのちゃん“事故レベル”大暴走は『水ダウ』遠隔操作のしわざだった ネットも納得
ガーシー、またも綾野剛の暴露写真でネット歓喜「この写真見て笑っちゃう」
30キロ減量の華原朋美、痩せた美貌で“ノリノリ動画”公開 美ボディーで熱唱
ユーチューバーもこう氏、元彼女・成海瑠奈について赤裸々告白
大久保佳代子「30代前半は性欲おばけ」“ストッパー”にするためあえてしていたこと明かす
「日本では日本語を喋る努力をしろ」外国人接客への投稿で炎上店主が「お詫びと休業のお知らせ」
アイドルの給与事情明かし「食べていくの無理に…」母が元おニャン子クラブのセクシー女優が訴え
何があった!?「エアコン」が想定外の壊れ具合!投稿者に話を聞いた
岡本夏生(56)、1600日ぶりにブログを更新した現在が衝撃
曙と熱愛した相原勇(52)の現在が衝撃的すぎると話題に
深夜のファミリーマート徘徊、必ず入っている「フエラムネのミニチュアおもちゃ付」を探し求めた結果……
ガーシー、佐野ひなこの暴露を示唆でネット騒然「ファンだったのに」
ユーチューバーもこう氏、元彼女・成海瑠奈について赤裸々告白
ガーシー、またも綾野剛の暴露写真でネット歓喜「この写真見て笑っちゃう」
いなば食品のホームページが表示されない!そして「プレスリリース」もヤバすぎると話題に
小澤征悦と再婚した桑子真帆アナ(34)黒い過去が流出、衝撃の過去にネット騒然
玉置浩二の妻、青田典子(53)の現在がとんでもない事になっていると話題に
大谷翔平「僕は乗ってないんだけどな、と」昨年オフ“プレイベートジェット”誤情報に言及
水曜日のダウンタウン、次回予告のミスで「エンドレスエイト」がトレンド入りする事態に
ナ・リーグ打撃上位一覧(米23日現在)
Rソックス吉田正尚3試合連続スタメン落ち、コーラ監督「DHに2人使えない、枠が3つあれば」
【弁護士が回答】レンタカーでドライブ中に追突されたら慰謝料の相場は?|旅のトラブルFAQ
【ロッテリア】パティが2枚の「夜Wバーガー」誕生! マクドナルドの「倍バーガー」とコスパ比較
バルセロナ・シャビ監督が退任の意向を撤回 ラポルタ会長らクラブ首脳陣との会談で延長合意
モナコ南野拓実が先発フル出場 4位リールに競り勝ち欧州CLへ前進、PSGの優勝に待った
米TikTok「禁止」法成立 バイデン氏陣営はアプリ使用継続
【阪神】大山悠輔「勝ってよかった」雨の逆転劇呼ぶ土壇場9回同点打、7連勝!晴れて首位堅守